1. It is speculative:
Prices have clearly been manipulated with pump and dumps by insiders.
I have no informational advantage to speculate on Bitcoin just as I have no informational advantage to speculate on other hyper-volatile stocks.
2. I am not convinced that it will replace fiat currency:
Yes, El Salvador is a use case. And Argentinians were early on Bitcoin.
But there are not many (financially) successful western democracies in which Bitcoin is being used to buy bread and milk.
It is almost as if Cryptocurrency is being used in countries where good government has failed.
Lets just continue with reasonably good government and not worry about internet money for now.
3. Yes, I realise that fiat currency is simply made up by the Government:
But I don't believe that it is only valuable because we all share the same delusion and simply agree that it is valuable.
Rather, I think fiat currency is valuable because the US Military will go to war to ensure the stability and relative primacy of the US Dollar.
The same is true for gold - we just like it because it stays shiny and doesn't kill us when we touch it. I mean there are other metals in the periodic table...
And of the geopolitical upheavals that can reasonably be expected to happen in my lifetime, the fall of the United States will not be one of them.
4. I don't think the Government will steal my money:
The Australian Government guarantees cash deposits up to $250,000. So if the bank goes out of business, you are still good.
The obvious critique is "what if the Government goes out of business"?
Well, if you think Australia is going to be the civilisation that falls in my lifetime, then I have some shares to sell you in an exciting new company that has been contracted to dismantle the Eiffel Tower...
5. I am no 'Prepper':
Tech nerds, with digital currencies in their pocket, navigating a post-apocalyptic wasteland is a hilariously dark image.
There is a Monty Python sketch in that, surely...
What if there is no freely accessible electricity?
It wouldn't matter anyway because whoever has the biggest stick or largest stockpile of well defended food is who rules the wasteland, not whoever has the most digital coins in their unchargeable and unrepairable laptop or digital wallet.
The same is true for gold - having gold bullion stored in a sleek private vault in Singapore is not going to help you. Neither will gold under your mattress - unless you use it to hit someone in the head so you can steal their food.
6. What if I am right?
I will simply continue to go about my life, having a great time, amassing savings in fiat currency ($250,000 AUD per bank) and wealth by purchasing shares in profit-making companies and investment grade property; maybe I will even start my own company - and I will never regret having been 'SBF-FTX'-ed for some thousands of dollars in my twenties.
7. What If I am wrong?
Well, all of the above would remain true.
It's just that if anyone would like to buy my property or my business or engage my services, they would simply need to pay me in Bitcoin, assuming that, by the time I have been proven wrong, Bitcoin is the currency of the land that is suitable for settling all debts, public and private.